Dry/hot spell update

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Dry/hot spell update

Message from the Met Office Advisor (NW ENG) — Dry/hot spell update — predominantly settled/very warm next 7 to 10 days with no obvious end in sight

And on it goes. 11 days after the initial briefing on the impending fine spell there are few signs of the dry/sunny/very warm conditions breaking down.

Below is a summary of the main weather/impact pointers relating to the Northwest.

  • Today and tomorrow all dry, sunny and very warm days.
  • Temperature levels today similar to those of yesterday (mid to high 20s C) when Rostherne near Knutsford was the NW hotspot at 29.7C.Values nudging down slightly for Wednesday but still very warm for most (low to mid 20s C generally, the odd favoured spot perhaps creeping into the 27/28C range).
  • Heat Health Watch now back at Level 1 and liable to stay there for a while.
  • The E'ly breeze will still blow fresh at times during today with gusts of the order of 30mph possible across the Pennines with ongoing impacts for the fires/firefighters at Winter Hill and Saddleworth Moor. Breeze likely reducing in strength on Wednesday.
  • Thursday & Friday still predominantly dry with sunny spells and similar temperature levels (low to mid 20s C) but with pressure falling a little which may allow some cloud to bubble up and the odd locally sharp shower break out (at this stage fully-fledged thunderstorms appear very unlikely).
  • However, any showers that do develop are likely to be fairly isolated affairs and will almost certainly fail to deliver the amount of rain needed to soak deep into the peat layers in the fire-affected areas and cap the fires.
  • Heading into next weekend there is a strong signal for high pressure to become re-established across the UK with the shower risk returning to zero and temperatures perhaps nudging back up in to the high 20s C, accompanied by largely sunny skies.

Based on the above the ground is only going to get even drier/harder as this week progresses and hence the fire risk will remain very high.

There are no obvious signs of a breakdown with the possibility that the new high pressure cell that becomes established this coming weekend could persist close enough to the UK and retain its influence on proceedings well into next week.

Some of the longer range forecast data invariably suggests an eventual breakdown with either humid/thundery conditions from the S becoming more of a player or Atlantic weather systems finally making some headway from the W.

However, all this is speculation for now with the next 7-10 days dominated by dry, sunny and very warm conditions.

I'll update again in future, in the meantime stay cool and hydrated and have a good day,